An Oversold Stock to Buy Amid AI Disruption Fears

S&P Global is having a tough 2026: Its stock is dramatically underperforming the market this year. Why? With the release of the Claude Opus 4.6 model, which is designed to carry out financial research, markets have been increasingly concerned about AI disruption for capital markets information services companies. But when it comes to S&P Global, we think those concerns are overdone. While the company’s market intelligence segment could be vulnerable in the face of artificial intelligence, existing clients would face switching costs. And we think S&P Global’s ratings, indexes, and energy segments are insulated from AI disruption. After reviewing the impact of AI across the industry, we reaffirmed our Wide Morningstar Economic Moat Rating and $570 fair value estimate for S&P Global. We think it’s an oversold stock to buy, trading 22% below our fair value estimate. In fact, S&P Global was one of Chief US Market Strategist Dave Sekera’s stock picks in a recent episode of The Morning Filter podcast.

Whether through credit ratings, financial indexes, or commodity price reporting, S&P Global has established a wide moat from its data-driven benchmarks. Given the embedded nature of these benchmarks, S&P enjoys a strong competitive position and solid operating margins. In 2022, S&P completed the $44 billion acquisition of IHS Markit. We believe the acquired company’s recurring revenue model diversified S&P’s revenue, limiting upside and downside scenarios. Bond issuance volume is a key revenue driver for the ratings business, which makes up almost 40% of S&P Global’s adjusted operating income. S&P’s other segments include market intelligence, S&P Dow Jones indexes, energy, and mobility.

Key Morningstar Metrics for S&P Global

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $570
• Star Rating
  : 5 Stars
• Economic Moat Rating
  : Wide
• Uncertainty Rating
  : Low

Economic Moat Rating

We believe S&P Global’s well-established benchmark businesses have a wide economic moat based on intangible assets and network effects. Credit ratings provide value to bond issuers as well as bond investors, creating a network effect. Acceptance among index providers and government regulators also supports the rating agencies’ wide moats, in our view. Credit rating agencies such as S&P have built a moat through intangible assets as well. The incumbents are advantaged by their multidecade records, which allow investors to see how credit ratings performed. Regulations are another hurdle. We believe the network effect has been strong enough to result in limited traction for other rating agencies.

Read more about S&P Global’s moat rating.

Fair Value Estimate for S&P Global Stock

Our $570 fair value estimate equates to about 30 and 27 times our respective 2026 and 2027 non-GAAP earnings per share estimates. We model only 4% ratings revenue growth in 2026, as the firm faces challenging comparisons. However, we continue to expect S&P to generate high-single-digit revenue growth in ratings through the cycle, driven by pricing and nominal GDP growth. On a firmwide basis, we model average annual revenue growth of 7.3% per year over 2026-30. By 2030, excluding the impact of the planned spinoff of the mobility division, we expect non-GAAP operating margin to be around 52.4%, about a 200-basis-point increase from 2025. We attribute the margin expansion to revenue growth and continued expense discipline.

Read more about S&P Global’s fair value estimate.

Risk and Uncertainty

In the near term, the ratings business is affected by the level of bond issuance, which can be lumpy. In the longer term, ratings revenue is driven by pricing power and GDP growth. Indexes’ asset-linked fees, by contrast, are sensitive to asset price levels, specifically for exchange-traded funds. Trading royalties are sensitive to trading volume, and S&P Platts is modestly sensitive to energy market conditions. In 2015, S&P entered into a $1.38 billion settlement with the Justice Department and attorneys general from various states relating to civil claims on structured finance ratings. While issues like this crop up from time to time, we think S&P has been able to maintain its moat. Regulation also presents headline risk, but it often benefits incumbents.

Read more about S&P Global’s risk and uncertainty.

S&P Global Bulls Say

• Ratings revenue, which has high incremental margins, has often surprised to the upside, as it did in 2020, 2021, and 2024. In addition, refinancing walls could support stronger-than-expected issuance.
• The spinoff of mobility (Carfax) may strengthen management’s focus and accelerate organic subscription revenue growth.
• S&P Global’s benchmarks are difficult to displace, and value-based pricing could result in greater-than-expected pricing power and margin growth.

S&P Global Bears Say

• Higher interest rates, corporate deleveraging, and increased spreads could lead to a decline in bond issuance, which would weigh on ratings revenue. High-yield spreads in 2024 and 2025 were lower than usual, indicating relatively loose credit conditions.
• Market intelligence faces a variety of competitors, such as FactSet, LSEG, and Bloomberg, and a tougher macro environment could elongate sales cycles. Also, the rise of AI could lower the barrier to entry for competitors.
• The rise of private credit poses a challenge for rating agencies, as private credit is often unrated.

This article was compiled by Susan Dziubinski and Sylvia Hauser. Data as of March 10, 2026, close unless otherwise noted.