Ahead of Earnings, Is ASML Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?

ASML Holding set to release its forth-quarter 2025 earnings report on Jan. 28.

Key Morningstar Metrics for ASML

• Fair Value Estimate: EUR 1,000.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Economic Moat: Wide
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

Among the numbers of greatest interest to investors when fourth-quarter results are released will be those relating to the company’s guidance for the coming years. Revenue estimates for 2026 could be revised slightly upward.

We model EUR 42b in 2027, +21.4% compared with 2026, due to TSMC stepping up foundry investment even further, ASML’s capex increase vs 2026 and an important capacity addition from memory makers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) which will come online in 2027.

Indeed, TSMC guided for massive $54 billion in capex last week. Peers with shorter lead times than ASML (like BE Semiconductor BESI and ASM International ASMI) are more likely to benefit from this number because orders received in Q1 and Q2 26 can still fall in 2026 revenue. ASML will benefit more in 2027.

Investors will also be watching the quarterly order book with interest. Wednesday will be the last time we will get ASML’s quarterly order number. In our opinion this is positive, as we hope it smoothens out the volatility of the shares during 2026 as investors stop putting much emphasis on quarterly performance and embrace a longer-term view.

Over the next few years, we expect ASML to benefit from continued growth in AI spending. AI demand seems real and lasting. TSMC is an extremely disciplined and cautious company with investment and new technology adoption. If they are raising capex by this much it means they are seeing real demand. To produce Nvidia’s new Rubin and Rubin Ultra GPUs, TSMC will need to develop new production capacity, and this should translate into new orders for ASML.