Morningstar

Boeing Earnings: Steadily Climbing Out of a Very Deep Hole

We’ve lowered our fair value estimate of Boeing stock.

The Boeing logo on the building's exterior.
Aaron M. Sprecher via AP
Securities in This Article
Boeing Co
(BA)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Boeing

  • Fair Value Estimate
    : $238.00
  • Morningstar Rating
    : ★★★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
    : Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
    : High

What We Thought of Boeing’s Earnings

Boeing BA delivered just 13 more jets in the first quarter of 2026 than in 2025, fueling 13% commercial revenue growth and a similar $563 million loss in the quarter. Defense delivered $233 million profit on 21% higher revenue, with aftermarket services up 6% and contributing $971 million in operating profit.

Why it matters: We estimate that half of Boeing’s enterprise value is derived from its 737 product line. Increasing the rate at which the company can make and deliver these jets is the single biggest driver of near- and long-term profitability and cash flow, and Boeing received Federal Aviation Administration approval to do so in October 2025.

  • Our forecast for 2026 deliveries of 737s (including shipping previously built ones from inventory) now calls for 71 more jets than the 447 the company achieved in 2025, and we expect the company may deliver just five more 787s than it did last year.
  • While both should be positive developments for the company’s turnaround trajectory, they represent a less-steep ramp than we previously supposed, because it is taking time for the company to meticulously refine the manufacturing process for its 737 assembly lines, producing the already-popular 737-MAX8 and 737-MAX9.

The bottom line: We reduced our fair value estimate for wide-moat Boeing to $238 per share from $246, reflecting a slower commercial delivery ramp-up and slightly higher long-term investment required in the business, offset by some growth in new defense business. The shares trade very close to our revised fair value estimate.

Coming up: We’ll eagerly monitor Boeing’s progress on deliveries of its 737 and 787, as well as flight testing and certification of its newest and largest jet, the 777X, due later in 2026. Provided it progresses to plan, we believe the company will achieve its approximately $3 billion free cash flow goal in 2026 and reach $10 billion by 2028 or 2029.

    Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

    The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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