Coinbase: Increasing Our Fair Value Estimate on Higher Cryptocurrency Prices

Key Morningstar Metrics for Coinbase Global

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $168
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : Very High

Coinbase Valuation Update

Cryptocurrency markets had a poor start to 2026, and falling valuations drove Coinbase back into unprofitability in the first half 2026. However, as cryptocurrency markets have partially recovered, the firm’s prospects have improved in recent months.

The bottom line: We are increasing our fair value estimate for no-moat-rated Coinbase to $168 from $150. Despite the increase, we still see the shares as overvalued, as we think they have rallied too far on rising cryptocurrency prices.

• Around $5 of the increase comes from the time value of money since our last model update. The other $13 comes from higher cryptocurrency trading and custody revenue projections as we incorporate higher cryptocurrency valuations into our model.
• While Coinbase has made tangible progress in its efforts to reduce its exposure to cryptocurrency market conditions, the company’s results are still highly correlated to cryptocurrency prices, which are inherently volatile.

Key stats: We now expect Coinbase to be profitable in the second half 2026, with our 2026 projections implying diluted earnings per share of $2.18 over the next six months.

• This will still depend heavily on the path cryptocurrency prices take. Coinbase maintains significant cryptocurrency investments and treats its unrealized gains and losses as part of its operating results, adding further exposure.

Bulls say: Coinbase’s new strategy of becoming an “everything exchange” will reduce the firm’s reliance on the price performance of a single highly speculative asset class and drive revenue growth by better monetizing its users’ demand for speculative products.