Comerica Earnings: Lower 2025 Net Interest Income and Fee Outlook

Key Morningstar Metrics for Comerica

• Fair Value Estimate: $57.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

What We Thought of Comerica’s Earnings

Comerica CMA reported okay first-quarter results, including earnings per share of $1.25, about 28% higher than a year ago. However, the bank lowered its 2025 guidance for loan growth, net interest income, fee income, and expenses, which is disappointing.

Why it matters: Comerica’s updated 2025 guidance doesn’t include a recession in its base case, but it has incorporated lower 2025 US GDP growth than the prior year and highlighted the elevated uncertainty. The bank still expects to expand its balance sheet after the second quarter.

• Net interest income grew 5% from a year ago, mostly driven by net interest margin expansion of 38 basis points from the prior-year quarter. The bank now expects 2025 NII to grow 5%-7% compared with its previous guidance of 6%-7% with lower loan growth in 2025.
• The bank also lowered its fee income growth guidance to 2% from 4% due to lower-than-expected first-quarter core fee income. Fee income increased 8% from a year ago, but most of the growth was driven by a noncore item of risk-management (hedging) income.

The bottom line: We are lowering our fair value estimate to $57 per share from $59 after incorporating first-quarter results and lowered 2025 guidance. We assess the shares as slightly undervalued after around a 5% decline on April 21 following the earnings release.

• The reduction is mostly driven by lower 2025 loan and NII growth as well as lower 2025 fee income growth, partially offset by lower 2025 expense growth.
• We were previously cautious about the US banking sector’s rally after the November election. With the sector having corrected by more than 20%, we think the current valuation is more attractive.