PNC Earnings: Uplift in 2026 Net Interest Income and Balance Sheet Growth Guidance

Key Morningstar Metrics for PNC Financial Services

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $239.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : Medium

What We Thought of PNC Financial Services’ Earnings

PNC Financial Services PNC reported strong results in the first quarter, with earnings growing 18% year over year. The bank also increased its 2026 net interest income growth guidance by 0.5% to 14.5% and average loan growth guidance by 3.0% to 11.0%.

Why it matters: We note PNC’s organic balance sheet has been quite strong for the past several quarters, mostly due to the bank’s expansion in the faster-growing Southeast and Southwest regions. Excluding the contribution from FirstBank, PNC grew its loan balances by around 4.2% sequentially.

• We think PNC’s acquisition of BBVA USA and its De Novo expansion have accelerated its balance sheet growth. The bank disclosed that its expansion markets are growing loans at twice the rate of the rest of its portfolio.
• While the updated guidance implies a more modest net interest margin expansion, we are not too concerned, as PNC indicates it is growing higher-credit-quality loans at a lower spread.

The bottom line: As we incorporate the latest results and updated guidance, we are increasing our fair value estimate for narrow-moat-rated PNC Financial to $239 per share from $209. The majority of the increase comes from higher net interest income growth, and we have also incorporated a higher leverage ratio forecast.

• We view PNC’s shares as slightly undervalued following our valuation updates. We think the bank has done a good job integrating BBVA USA, and we continue to expect it to execute well on the FirstBank acquisition.
• We now expect PNC to grow its NII at a 4.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2035, up from our previous 4.2% CAGR over the same period.

Key stats: We are not concerned with PNC’s exposure to private credit, which is around 1.9% of its loan book and is mostly investment-grade exposure and senior secured. Within PNC’s private credit portfolio, around 90% are CLO securitizations.