Going Into Earnings, Is Albemarle Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?

Albemarle ALB is set to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings report on Feb. 12. Here’s Morningstar’s take on what to look for in Albemarle’s earnings and stock.

Key Morningstar Metrics for Albemarle

• Fair Value Estimate: $225.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

Earnings Release Date

Wednesday, Feb.12, after the close of trading

What to Watch for in Albemarle’s Q4 Earnings

• Lithium prices: This is the largest driver of profits. Prices are currently at multi-year lows. We expect Albemarle’s results will reflect this and believe the company will see an EBITDA decline from the third quarter. Given that lithium prices remain low, we also expect a lower outlook for 2025.
• Lithium (energy storage segment) costs: Albemarle’s new projects temporarily inflate its unit production costs until the operations are fully ramped. We think the firm should see declining costs as projects finish ramping. Albemarle’s ability to reduce unit production costs is its second-largest profit driver. We will watch how unit costs evolved during the quarter and management’s commentary on costs in 2025.
• Portfolio actions: Albemarle is generating negative free cash flow. We await whether Albemarle announces any new lithium site closures or portfolio actions, such as the divestiture of Ketjen, its oil refining catalysts business.
• Free cash flow: Albemarle is currently undertaking a massive cost-cutting program, and the firm also plans to slash capital expenditures in 2025. We will see how cash flow progressed in the fourth quarter.

Fair Value Estimate for Albemarle

With its 5-star rating, we believe Albemarle’s stock is significantly undervalued compared with our long-term fair value estimate of $225 per share. We assume roughly a 10% weighted average cost of capital. We use a multiple of 11.5 times midcycle EBITDA to value free cash flows generated beyond our 10-year explicit forecast horizon.

Lithium will remain Albemarle’s largest business. We expect lithium prices will remain at cyclically low levels in 2024. Lithium carbonate spot prices, which tend to be a leading indicator of contract prices, are currently around $12,700 per metric ton (based on published indexes), down from $75,000 at the end of 2022. Prices fell due to slowing lithium purchases after inventory destocking. However, as demand growth remains strong, we expect prices will rise in 2025.

Read more about Albemarle’s fair value estimate.

Economic Moat Rating

We award Albemarle a narrow moat based on its strong and durable cost advantage in lithium and bromine production. Globally, lithium carbonate is produced from either lower-cost brine evaporation or higher-cost mining of spodumene minerals.

Albemarle has a cost advantage in lithium carbonate production due to its lucrative brine assets in the Salar de Atacama in Chile, which produces lithium at the lowest cost globally, excluding royalties. The firm’s advantaged position in bromine comes from its low-cost and long-lived assets in the Dead Sea and Arkansas. Production costs are largely determined by concentration, as higher concentration means less water needs to be evaporated to produce bromine from brine.

Read more about Albemarle’s economic moat.

Financial Strength

Albemarle is in poor financial health. As of Sept. 30, 2024, management reported net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio was 3.5 times, well above management’s long-term target of less than 2.5.

We forecast EBITDA to fall in 2024 due to lower lithium prices. As Albemarle completes its current lithium capacity expansion projects, the company issued $2.3 billion in convertible preferred equity in early 2024. These proceeds will allow Albemarle to finish the current wave of lithium growth projects. Additionally, the company plans to greatly reduce capital expenditures, cutting nearly all growth projects, starting in 2025 amid lower lithium prices. Albemarle also plans to reduce operating expenses. As its new plants ramp up and cost reductions are implemented, we expect Albemarle could begin to see improved EBIDA even if lithium prices remain lower for longer as soon as the second half of 2025. Additionally, we think the company could generate positive free cash flow by 2026 even if prices remain at current cyclically low levels.

Read more about Albemarle’s financial strength.

Risk and Uncertainty

We assign Albemarle a Very High Uncertainty Rating. The company’s biggest risk is volatile lithium prices. Prices could decline if EV demand grows more slowly than expected or new low-cost supply ramps up quicker than demand. New batteries, such as sodium-ion, could overtake lithium as the preferred energy storage resource.

Lithium production could ramp up more quickly than demand warrants if producers bring too much supply to the market. Further, new lithium production technologies could alter the cost curve in carbonate and hydroxide. Albemarle faces execution risk in ramping up its lithium production, which includes production delays and cost overruns.

Albemarle is also subject to political risk, especially in Chile. In President Gabriel Boric’s announced plan to nationalize lithium, the Chilean government would own a majority stake in all projects. If this occurs, Albemarle could be forced to sell a 50.1% stake to the Chilean government at a price as low as asset book value to extend its lease when it expires in 2043.

Read more about Albemarle’s risk and uncertainty.

ALB Bulls Say

• Albemarle has top-tier lithium assets through its brine operations in Chile and spodumene hard-rock operations in Western Australia, among the lowest-cost sources of lithium production globally.
• Lithium prices should rebound and remain well above the marginal cost of production through at least the remainder of the decade, leading to excess profits and return on invested capital for Albemarle.
• Albemarle has low-cost bromine production through its highly concentrated brines in the Dead Sea and Arkansas.

ALB Bears Say

• Lithium prices could fall and remain lower for longer as new supply growth outpaces demand, weighing on profitability. Albemarle’s plans to increase its lithium production capacity would prove value-destructive in the wake of lower prices.
• Albemarle’s bromine business will decline from weak demand for flame retardants as consumers shift from computers to less bromine-intensive tablets and smartphones.
• Chile’s plan to nationalize lithium could result in Albemarle being forced to sell a majority stake to the government at a price around asset book value, destroying shareholder value.

This article was compiled by Aman Dagra.