Morningstar

Johnson & Johnson Earnings: A Steady 2025 and Improving 2026

We’ve increased our fair value estimate of Johnson & Johnson stock.

A sign for Johnson & Johnson is seen outside the headquarters.
David Benito via Getty
Securities in This Article
Johnson & Johnson
(JNJ)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Johnson & Johnson

What We Thought of Johnson & Johnson’s Earnings

Johnson & Johnson JNJ reported 6.0% sales growth and 8.1% diluted adjusted earnings per share growth in 2025, with 2026 growth guidance of 6.7% for sales and 6.9% for diluted adjusted EPS at the midpoint.

Why it matters: The biopharma industry (including J&J) is grappling with patent expirations on key drugs, but we’re impressed by J&J’s ability to grow solidly despite the erosion of its immunology drug Stelara (a 620-basis-point headwind to 2025 sales), and how the firm has stepped up its 2026 growth outlook.

  • Both Innovative Medicine and MedTech divisions had similar mid-single-digit growth rates in 2025, reflecting broad-based strength in areas from oncology (22% growth, led by Darzalex and Carvykti) to electrophysiology (16% growth) and adding support to the firm’s outlook for 2026.

The bottom line: We’re raising our fair value estimate for wide-moat J&J to $182 per share from $172, with the biggest adjustments to our oncology and immunology forecasts. For long-term investors, we think shares still incorporate too much of a premium for J&J’s clearer near-term prospects.

  • In oncology, we now see total sales around $40 billion by 2030 (from $25 billion today) as J&J continues to gain share and launch promising combinations in multiple myeloma, but also launches new treatments in other areas, like Inlexzo for bladder cancer.
  • In immunology, we think Tremfya can grow to $12 billion by 2030, and when combined with the upcoming potential launch of Icotyde (icotrokinra), new drugs more than counter further declines in Stelara.

Big picture: Our mid-single-digit growth outlook through 2030 and $40 billion oncology sales forecast are still below management’s forecast (double-digit growth by 2030, $50 billion in oncology sales). We’re watching for key data this year, like cardiovascular drug milvexian, to adjust our outlook.

Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

Sponsor Center