Morningstar

Johnson & Johnson Earnings: Steady Growth and Good Near-Term Visibility

We’re waiting for data to help size opportunities for some of J&J’s pipeline drugs.

A sign for Johnson & Johnson is seen outside the headquarters.
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Securities in This Article
Johnson & Johnson
(JNJ)

Key Morningstar Metrics for Johnson & Johnson

  • Fair Value Estimate
    : $190.00
  • Morningstar Rating
    : ★
  • Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
    : Wide
  • Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
    : Low

What We Thought of Johnson & Johnson’s Earnings

Johnson & Johnson’s JNJ revenue grew 6.6% to $25.3 billion in the second quarter, driven by 7.8% growth in Innovative Medicine and 4.5% in MedTech. Management increased the midpoint of 2026 guidance by $300 million on the top line and $0.13 on the bottom line. Shares fell 2% intraday on July 15.

Why it matters: J&J’s strong momentum in oncology and immunology provides plenty of growth to cushion some areas of weakness in MedTech, as well as the ongoing Stelara patent cliff headwind.

  • Darzalex’s dominance in multiple myeloma and continued share gains are likely to drive double-digit sales growth of J&J’s biggest product until the end of the decade, and Tremfya’s share gains over AbbVie’s Skyrizi in gastrointestinal indications open up a long runway for immunology growth.
  • In MedTech, we expect temporary weakness from the narrowed use of Impella heart pumps until J&J has more data from the Protect-IV study in 2027. More broadly, J&J isn’t seeing signs of lower procedure volumes for its products, which tend to focus more heavily on less discretionary areas.

The bottom line: We’re maintaining our $190 per share fair value estimate for wide-moat J&J, as raising our 2030 sales forecasts for Darzalex (from $22 billion to $24 billion) and Tremfya (from $14 billion to $16 billion) did not significantly change our valuation.

  • While we think J&J is one of the lowest-uncertainty names in the large-cap biopharma universe and the healthcare sector overall, its ability to navigate the Stelara patent cliff and its popularity as a defensive stock investment have pushed shares above their intrinsic value, in our view.

Coming up: We’re waiting for data to help size opportunities for some of J&J’s pipeline drugs, with a couple of key readouts in immunology (Icotyde) and cardiology (milvexian) expected this year.

Editor’s Note: This analysis was originally published as a stock note by Morningstar Equity Research.

The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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