MongoDB Earnings: Weak Fiscal 2026 Outlook Clouds Strong 2025 Results

Key Morningstar Metrics for MongoDB

• Fair Value Estimate: $222.00
• Morningstar Rating: ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: None
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: High

What We Thought of MongoDB’s Earnings

MongoDB MDB reported solid fourth-quarter results, exceeding our estimates on the top and bottom lines. However, management’s fiscal 2026 outlook was well below expectations, and shares fell 16% in after-hours trading. The company guided for a fiscal 2026 growth of only 13%, while consensus was looking for growth closer to 17%, and our expectations were even higher at 20%.

The soft outlook incorporated weaker non-Atlas revenue expectations, due to fewer multiyear license renewals and increased investments in artificial intelligence and marketing initiatives. It is worrying that the company is seeing material limitations in growth in what was 30% of revenue in the most recent year. Further, the additional investments in marketing, combined with a deceleration in growth in Atlas revenue (which we estimate will likely only be up 21%-22% in fiscal 2026, compared with 27% growth in the previous year), are cause for concern.

We factor in slower growth than previously expected, and after adjusting our estimates, we arrive at a fair value estimate of $222 per share, down from $290. We view the stock as fairly valued after its drop.

While fourth-quarter revenue growth was strong, up 20% year on year and above the high end of the guidance range, this momentum does not seem likely to last. Atlas, which grew by 24% over the previous year on strong consumption and healthy retention rates, was decelerating throughout 2025, and is set to decelerate further in fiscal 2026. For the first quarter of 2026, MongoDB guided to revenue of $524 million-$529 million, a sequential decline. This was partly driven by seasonality in consumption post-holidays, but also due to lower Enterprise Advanced renewal activity. Management often beats the guidance they set at the start of the year, but this guide was worse than normal, even assuming some beats.