Tesla: Robotaxi Event Features Two Vehicle Prototypes

Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla

• Fair Value Estimate: $200.00
• Morningstar Rating: 3 stars
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating: Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating: Very High

We’re maintaining our fair value estimate of $200 per share and narrow moat rating for Tesla TSLA following the company’s robotaxi event. We view the shares as slightly overvalued, trading a little less than 20% above our fair value estimate, but in 3-star territory.

Our key takeaway is Tesla’s plan to launch an unsupervised version of its full self-driving autonomous driving software for its current vehicles in California and Texas next year. At the moment, the firm offers a supervised version of the software, so this is a key step toward a robotaxi launch, as those vehicles are planned to run on the unsupervised version.

The event featured two robotaxi prototypes. The first is a smaller two-door vehicle, the Cybercab. The second is the Robovan, a larger model that can hold up to 20 people. The company aims to begin production of these vehicles by the end of 2026, though CEO Elon Musk noted that his timelines are often optimistic. Management wants to sell the Cybercab for less than $30,000. It is planned to have an induction-only (wireless) charging system, meaning it could theoretically charge in more locations, even while driving. But thinking practically, we don’t expect wireless charging infrastructure to be widely available before Tesla’s production timeline. This could limit the adoption of these vehicles unless plugs are added to them.

The Cybercab prototypes appeared to be on a smaller frame than Tesla’s current Model 3 and Model Y. This could ultimately be used for a smaller, more affordable vehicle platform in addition to robotaxis. However, for Tesla’s new vehicle launch, currently scheduled to enter production next year, we expect the Model 3/Y platform will be the vehicle’s base.