Tesla: Shares Rise on Third-Quarter Deliveries Ahead of Consensus Estimates

Key Morningstar Metrics for Tesla

• Fair Value Estimate
  : $450.00
• Morningstar Rating
  : ★★★
• Morningstar Economic Moat Rating
  : Narrow
• Morningstar Uncertainty Rating
  : Very High

Tesla TSLA reported third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, down slightly from the third quarter of 2025.

Why it matters: Tesla shares were up 4% on Oct. 2 as the market reacted favorably to the numbers being ahead of company-compiled consensus estimates. The solid third-quarter numbers put Tesla on track for deliveries growth in 2026 after two straight years of declines.

• The decline of just 2% is also notable as it comes against the third quarter of 2025, which saw a pull-forward in demand due to the US electric vehicle tax credit expiration last September.
• Through the first nine months of the year, Tesla’s deliveries are up nearly 10% versus the first nine months of 2025. In our view, the growth is driven by full self-driving, which we view as a differentiator that drives consumers to choose Tesla over other autos.

The bottom line: We maintain our $450 per share fair value estimate for narrow-moat Tesla. At current prices, we view Tesla shares as slightly undervalued, trading around 20% below our fair value estimate, which puts Tesla on the border of 3-star and 4-star territory.

• We forecast around 10% deliveries growth in 2026 as Tesla’s FSD drives higher deliveries and increased FSD adoption.

Coming up: Tesla will report earnings on Oct. 21. We hope to hear an update on Tesla’s rollout plan for its robotaxi fleet, including the dedicated ride-hailing cybercab.

• We also hope to hear an update on when FSD version 15 will roll out, as this model will have greatly increased parameters, which should allow the software to drive Tesla’s vehicles with far fewer interventions or the need for a human driver or remote operator to take control of the vehicle.
• Finally, we hope Tesla provides an update on the Optimus humanoid robot. We view autonomous driving and humanoids as the two long-term pillars for Tesla as the company transitions from autos and batteries as its primary products to autonomous driving software and humanoids.