These 2 Large-Growth Stocks Pulled Back After Earnings. Are They Still a Buy Today?

What to make of Netflix’s sharp decline after reporting, and why we raised our fair value estimate on ASML.

Securities in This Article
Netflix Inc
(NFLX)
ASML Holding NV ADR
(ASML)

On the April 20, 2026, episode of The Morning Filter podcast, David Sekera and Susan Dziubinski discuss the market’s response to the latest earnings reports from Netflix NFLX and ASML ASML. Here is an excerpt from the show.

Why Netflix’s Stock Pulled Back After Earnings

Dziubinski: Netflix stock pulled back after the company reported earnings last week, and Morningstar held its fair value steady at $80. What did Morningstar make of the results, and is the stock attractive after earnings?

Sekera: This one is interesting in the fact that both their revenues and their margins both looked pretty good. In fact, I think they exceeded the company’s prior guidance. The problem came when they were discussing their forward guidance for the rest of the year. Essentially, what management said is that they’re tracking what their prior outlook had been. Considering they just raised prices, which was a surprise to the marketplace, their market was then expecting those higher prices would let them increase their guidance to account for that price hike. If they didn’t increase their guidance, the market is assuming that implies that the rest of the underlying business is a little weaker than what people were expecting. As such, that stock got hit pretty hard. I think it dropped about 10%. Last I checked, it’s still trading at $97, still well above our $80 fair value. In my mind, I think this stock probably has further to fall as the market prices in, more like low double-digit growth rates as opposed to mid-teen growth rates.

ASML Stock’s Fair Value Increase

Dziubinski: ASML’s stock pulled back after earnings, even though the company upped its forecast and Morningstar raised its fair value estimate on ASML to $1,400 from $1,170. Talk about the market’s response to the company’s results and how that differs from Morningstar’s.

Sekera: I think the reaction here was more about the valuation than it was necessarily about the performance. If you look at the market price, where it came down to, it took it right to almost exactly where our updated fair value is. From my point of view, nothing to do as far as buying or selling the stock at this point. The takeaway here is that the fundamentals are still very strong. The fair value increase was from a slight increase in our medium-term and longer-term expectations, not necessarily a change in the short-term expectations, but this company is very highly valued; it trades at 45 times our 2026 earnings estimate, but that does drop to 34 times our 2027 earnings estimate. This is one where you’re going to have to keep a pretty close eye on the guidance and those growth numbers, just to make sure that they’re able to meet the type of expectations that the market is currently pricing into that stock today.

Subscribe to The Morning Filter on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts, and keep up with the latest research from hosts Susan Dziubinski and David Sekera on Morningstar.com.

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The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

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