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February PCE Report: Core PCE Inflation Index Up 2.8%, Above Expectations

Overall PCE rises 2.5%, in line with forecasts.

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The February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased in line with expectations, up 2.5% from year-ago levels.

When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 2.8% from one year ago, above expectations. Economists forecast that the core PCE inflation index would rise 2.7%.

The PCE Price Index increased 0.3% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index increased 0.4%.

February PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in February, in line with the FactSet consensus forecast and following an increase of the same amount in January.
  • Core PCE rose 0.4% in February, above forecasts for a 0.3% increase and following an increase of 0.3% in January.
  • The PCE Price Index year over year rose 2.5% in February, in line with forecasts and following an increase of the same amount in January.
  • Core PCE year over year rose 2.8% in February, above forecasts for a 2.7% increase and following an increase of 2.7% in January.

PCE Price Index vs. Core PCE Price Index

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of 2025-02-28.

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