Inflation Slows as Gas Prices Lead Decline in March CPI

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.4% in March from year-ago levels, compared with 2.8% in February. Year-over-year core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy costs) rose 2.8%, trailing the February rate of 3.1%.

The BLS reported that the index for energy fell 2.4% in March, as a 6.3% percent decline in the index for gasoline more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas.

Economists have cautioned that the March CPI report would likely not reflect the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The CPI fell 0.1% month over month in March after rising 0.2% in February. Core CPI rose 0.1%, matching the February increase.

Economists forecast that consumer prices would rise 0.1% on a monthly basis in March, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. That would have taken the annual inflation rate to 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.0% on an annual basis.

March CPI Report Key Stats

• CPI fell 0.1% for the month after rising 0.2% in February.
• Core CPI rose 0.1% after rising 0.2% in February.
• CPI increased 2.4% year over year after increased 2.8% the prior month.
• Core CPI rose 2.8% from year-ago levels after rose 3.1% in February.

Food prices increased 0.4% in March after increasing 0.2% in February. Grocery prices rose 0.5%, while restaurant prices increased 0.4%.

Energy prices were mixed after holding steady last month. Utility gas prices rose 3.6%, fuel oil prices decreased 4.2%, gasoline prices fell 6.3%, and electricity prices increased 0.9%. Shelter prices rose 0.2% in March after rising 0.3% in February.