What Trump’s Removal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Will Mean for Investors

What could President Donald Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner mean for the economy?

On Aug. 2, 2025, Trump fired BLS head Erika McEntarfer after substantial revisions to the jobs report. His rationale was that the data were “manipulated for political purposes,” although no evidence was given. Rather, the likely reason for the president’s ire was that the report conflicted with his message that we have an economy “the likes of which have never been seen before.”

On the morning of Aug. 1, the BLS reported that the US economy had added 73,000 nonfarm payrolls in July. It also dramatically revised the May and June jobs reports: Nonfarm payrolls were revised downward from 144,000 and 147,000 to 19,000 and 14,000, respectively.

This marked the largest revision since 1968, but similar revisions are not uncommon. Moreover, the lower numbers actually fit the expectations of a majority of economic and market observers who believe that the tariff war and broad policy uncertainty have made businesses reluctant to hire.

An irony here, of course, is that the poor jobs numbers support a rate cut, something for which Trump has been advocating for a while.

BLS Revisions Are the Result of Process—Not Bias

It’s essential to bear in mind that while some of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data may appear to exhibit bias or prove to be inaccurate after the fact, this is not due to political or ideological orientation. Rather, it’s the result of difficulties in collecting and processing huge amounts of data.

The BLS is the model of a technocratic entity. As explained by George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen, the BLS judges itself on technical expertise, process, and rigor. It’s about following processes and ensuring results are consistent with those processes.

That said, any perceived bias in the employment data is a result of the process.

The BLS’ goal is to have an initial estimate out by a certain date. This estimate is based on survey data administered to a large population of businesses and households, and not all of those surveys come back in time. To meet the deadline, the BLS takes the available surveys and supplements them with a model to fill in the gaps. Once all (or enough) of the surveys are collected, the figures are recalculated, and a revision is released.

It’s unsurprising that the uncertain environment generated by the Trump administration’s rapidly shifting policy signals may be responsible for the large revision. Businesses have a hard time making plans under such conditions.

Why BLS Data Matters for Investors and the Economy

Even with its imperfections, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the bulk of economic statistics essential for individuals, businesses, and governments to function. This includes consumer and producer prices, business productivity, household consumption dynamics, wage rates, how we spend our time, and a raft of other measures.

Every time you reach into your pocket to use your credit card, you indirectly touch the BLS. Every time you pay your mortgage, receive an interest payment, negotiate a raise, or do virtually anything in the economy, you’re engaging with the BLS.

Consider interest rates, which have a significant impact on individuals. The Federal Reserve’s decisions for interest rates incorporate estimates of inflation, so the accuracy and reliability of the BLS’ inflation numbers are key to getting to the “right” interest rate. If inflation is inaccurate, interest rates could miss the mark and cause excess economic stress for individuals.

And, of course, many figures are directly indexed to inflation, like Social Security, wages, and even federal tax brackets. So, if inflation numbers are manipulated, individuals are going to feel the downstream effects.

The US is the number-one economy and the most trusted market, specifically because institutions like the BLS are viewed as transparent and independent. There has historically been no US political risk premium, thus allowing us to finance our debt and consumption at enviable levels.

But this perception and status could face challenges if there were changes to how the BLS operates in response to outside pressure.

Who Could Be the Next BLS Chief?

On Monday, Aug. 11, Trump named E.J. Antoni as his pick to replace McEntarfer.

This is not an auspicious selection, as he appears to be more of a political operative than a serious economist. Trump’s post on Truth Social announcing Antoni’s endorsement (“Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers are HONEST and ACCURATE”) supports this interpretation of the nomination.

Antoni is a fellow and chief economist at the Heritage Foundation. He holds masters and doctoral degrees in economics from Northern Illinois University, having just earned his doctoral degree in 2020.

Antoni almost certainly has the technical skill to learn, understand, and critique the BLS’ current process. He has, for example, cited post-covid declines in survey response rates as a signal that the bureau needs to rethink some of its methods. More controversially, but not malignantly, he’s suggested temporarily limiting jobs data to “more accurate” quarterly releases.

But Antoni comes with a lot of baggage that will not sit well with market observers.

For one, he suggested that a “MAGA republican” head up the BLS on political commentator Steve Bannon’s podcast eight days prior to the McEntarfer firing, and he was part of the controversial Project 2025 plan to overhaul the government. And he’s written numerous opinion pieces for the Heritage Foundation extolling previous Trump decisions.

Antoni will need to work very hard to gain credibility among the masses, though it remains to be seen if he’s motivated to do so. He still needs to be confirmed by the Senate, and we can only hope they are motivated to see a credible chair.