Weekly Markets Wrap: Distorted Data Leaves Stocks Drifting

Stock Market Update for the Trading Week Ended Dec. 19

• The Morningstar US Market Index rose 0.06%.
• The best-performing sectors were consumer cyclicals, up 0.92%, and healthcare, up 0.45%.
• The worst-performing sectors were energy, down 3.04%, and real estate, down 1.11%.
• Large-cap stocks gained 0.19%, mid-cap stocks fell 0.44%, and small-cap stocks rose 0.02%.
• Growth stocks gained 0.6%, blend stocks fell 0.58%, and value stocks fell 0.52%.
• The S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq rose 0.48%.
• Of the 836 US-listed companies covered by Morningstar, 367, or 44%, were up, none were unchanged, and 469, or 56%, were down.

“US stocks were relatively unchanged for the week ending Dec. 19, despite two significant and delayed economic releases,” explains Morningstar chief multi-asset strategist Dominic Pappalardo. He says the November jobs report showed mounting weakness in the labor market, pointing to downward revisions to prior months’ job gains and a third consecutive rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%.

Meanwhile, the November CPI came in below expectations, showing easing inflation pressures. However, with the government shutdown seen as distorting the CPI data, markets largely brushed off the news.

“Equity markets likely held steady on average, as the week lacked any developments impactful enough to change the future path of the Federal Reserve,” says Pappalardo. “Many investors are trying to decipher if, when, and how much the Fed may be cutting rates in 2026, and this week’s news did little to impact the current forecasts.”

In addition, with holidays and the year’s end approaching, overall activity in the markets slowed. “Markets may be entering a natural lull in activity, as many investors may be out of the office or focused on other year-end-related activities,” Pappalardo says.

Bonds and Commodities

• Yields on 10-year US Treasury notes fell to 4.16% from 4.19%.
• Yields on two-year US Treasury notes fell to 3.48% from 3.52%.
• West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell 1.74% to $56.53 per barrel.
• Comex Gold prices rose 1.19% to $4,354.00.

Top Stock Gainers

Rivian Automotive RIVN, Carnival CUK, SanDisk SNDK, Moderna MRNA, and BioMarin Pharmaceutical BMRN were the top performers among US-listed stocks covered by Morningstar analysts.

• Rivian topped the list, rising 21.72%, and it’s up 38.15% over the past three months. This no-moat company with a 2-star rating has increased 55.28% over the past 12 months. The stock closed the week at $22.42, trading at a 35% premium to its fair value estimate of $15.00 per share.
• Carnival was the second-best performer, with a weekly return of 21.27%. The 4-star stock has lost 7.55% over the last three months. Shares in this narrow-moat company are up 17.03% over the past 12 months. Carnival stock wrapped up the week at $30.96, trading at a 24% discount to its fair value estimate of $34.50 per share.
• Ranked third for the week, SanDisk saw its stock rise 15.24%. The 1-star, no-moat stock has gained 121.97% over the last three months. SanDisk stock closed at $237.60, trading at a 63% premium to its fair value estimate of $135.00 per share.
• The fourth-best-performing stock was no-moat Moderna, which gained 14.93%. The 4-star stock has gained 21.61% over the last three months but is down 19.32% over the past 12 months. Moderna finished the week at $33.86, trading at a 42% discount to its fair value estimate of $53 per share.
• BioMarin stock climbed 14.80% in the latest week. This narrow-moat company has seen a decrease of 5.79% over the last three months and a decline of 19.69% over the past 12 months. The 4-star stock ended the week at $61.20 per share, trading at a 37% discount to its fair value estimate of $83.00.

Top Stock Losers

Lamb Weston Holdings LW, Generac Holdings GNRC, Nike NKE, ARM Holdings ARM, and Advance Auto Parts AAP did the worst among US-listed stocks covered by Morningstar analysts.

• Lamb Weston was the worst-performing stock of the week, falling 26.35%. This 4-star, narrow-moat company has increased 5.72% over the last three months but decreased 22.26% over the past 12 months. The stock ended the week at $43.94, trading at a 26% discount to its fair value estimate of $80.00 per share.
• Generac took the second spot, with a 13.57% price decline this week. The narrow-moat company, rated 4 stars, has fallen 25.57% in the past three months and has decreased 13.18% over the past 12 months. Closing at $138.94, the stock trades at a 20% discount to its fair value estimate of $172.00 per share.
• Nike came in third, experiencing a 12.98% drop this week. This 4-star, wide-moat company is down 8.40% in the last three months and down 12.56% over the past 12 months. The stock finished the week at $58.71, trading at a 37% discount to its fair value estimate of $104.00 per share.
• Next up is ARM, which saw its stock price fall by 12.92% this week. The wide-moat company with a 2-star rating has dropped 22.54% over the past three months and is down 16.88% over the past 12 months. At $113.98, the stock trades at a 42% premium to its fair value estimate of $80.00 per share.
• Advance Auto Parts rounds out the list with a 12.87% decline this week. This 4-star, no-moat company has decreased 30.95% over the past three months and fell 1.65% over the past 12 months. The stock closed the week at $40.40, trading at a 26% discount to to its fair value estimate of $56.00 per share.

Highlights of This Week’s Market and Investing Events

• Tuesday, Dec. 23: October Durable Orders, Q3 GDP, November Capacity Utilization, November Industrial Production, December Consumer Confidence Survey
• Wednesday, Dec. 24: Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, Markets closed at 1:00 p.m. EST in observance of Christmas Eve
• Thursday, Dec. 25: Markets closed in observance of Christmas Day