Morningstar

August PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 3.4%, Softer Than Expected

The PCE Price Index increased 0.31% in August.

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Illustration of capital building with bubbles of currency inflating

The August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a softer-than-expected increase, up 3.4% from year-ago levels. Economists forecast that the index would rise 3.8%.

When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.0% from one year ago, below expectations. Economists forecast that core PCE inflation would rise 3.4%. The index increased 0.31% from the prior month; excluding food and energy, the increase was 0.25%.

August PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index rose 0.31% in August, above the FactSet consensus forecast for a 0.30% increase and following a 0.05% increase in July.
  • Core PCE rose 0.25% in August, below forecasts for a 0.40% increase and following a 0.13% increase in July.
  • The PCE Price Index rose 3.4% year over year in August, below forecasts for a 3.8% increase and following an increase of the same amount in July.
  • Core PCE rose 3.0% year over year in August, below forecasts for a 3.4% increase and following an increase of the same amount in July.

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