How Much Can You Safely Withdraw If You Retire Early?

Ever since Bill Bengen published his landmark paper, Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data, in 1994, most retirement planning research has assumed a starting retirement age of 65.

In reality, a significant percentage of people under 65 consider themselves retired, whether by necessity or choice. In fact, based on data from a May 2026 Gallup poll, people who haven’t yet retired expect to do so at age 66, but the average actual retirement age is about 61.

And with the Financial Independence, Retire Early movement entering the mainstream, guidance on safe withdrawal rates for early retirees may be lacking.

In this article, I’ll discuss what a reasonable withdrawal rate looks like for retirees planning a time horizon of 35 or 40 years—or even longer. I’ll also discuss some other important considerations for early retirees.

How Time Horizon Affects Withdrawal Rates

In Morningstar’s annual State of Retirement Income study, we estimate starting safe withdrawal rates for retirees seeking a consistent level of inflation-adjusted spending from year to year who want a plan safe enough to offer a 90% probability of success (defined as not running out of assets before the end of the period). We use forward-looking asset-class return and inflation assumptions and then use Monte Carlo simulations to test 1,000 potential return paths to vary the sequence of returns over time.

In addition to the standard 30-year time span, we also estimated withdrawal rates for shorter time horizons, as well as longer time horizons of 35 and 40 years. For this article, I asked my colleague Tao Guo to run additional numbers for time horizons of 45 and 50 years. In a nutshell, a longer planning period means you’ll need to withdraw less in percentage terms. That’s because the portfolio needs to last long enough to cover spending over an extended period. Although a longer time span should allow for more portfolio growth, it also means there are more opportunities for below-average returns to derail the plan.

For an individual planning for a 30-year period and looking for a 90% probability of success, we estimated that retirees could start with a withdrawal amount equal to 3.9% of the portfolio value. (This number reflects our “base case,” which assumes that retirees spend the same amount every year after adjusting for inflation.) As shown in the graph below, the starting safe withdrawal rate gradually declines for longer planning horizons.

A retiree planning for 35 more years in retirement could use a starting safe withdrawal rate of 3.5%, while someone planning for 40 more years could withdraw 3.3%. For a 50-year horizon, we estimate 2.9% would be a reasonable starting withdrawal rate.

All of the numbers above are based on a conservative model that requires a 90% probability of success. If you’re willing to live with lower odds or incorporate one of the flexible spending methods we tested, you can likely spend more.

Adding Asset Allocation to the Mix

The numbers above assume a portfolio made up of 40% stocks, with the remainder in fixed-income securities. Portfolios with a heavier equity tilt generally had lower starting safe withdrawal rates over the various time horizons we tested. However, longer time horizons allowed for slightly higher equity allocations compared with the default assumption of 30 years. For someone with a time horizon of 35 years, for example, we estimated a starting safe withdrawal rate of 3.5% for portfolios with equity allocations ranging from 30% to 60% of assets.

Safe withdrawal rates also look a bit less generous on the opposite end of the spectrum, with equity allocations lower than 30%. Without as many stocks to power portfolio growth, the portfolios we tested supported slightly lower withdrawal amounts over time.

As with the first graph, the numbers above are based on a conservative model that requires a 90% probability of success and assumes a consistent level of inflation-adjusted spending that never changes throughout retirement. Early retirees who are comfortable with a lower probability of success or who incorporate a more flexible spending strategy can likely spend as much as one or two percentage points more.

It’s Complicated

There are a couple of factors that muddy the waters for early retirees when it comes to estimating a safe spending rate. First, people who retire in their 40s or 50s will eventually be able to claim Social Security, allowing them to ease up on portfolio withdrawals starting at age 67 (assuming they file for benefits at full retirement age). One option would be to simply use the safe withdrawal rate estimates above without taking these paychecks into account, but that approach might be overly conservative. A more accurate option would be to work with a financial advisor or use retirement planning software that can incorporate variable spending and income amounts from year to year.

In addition, it’s probably unrealistic to assume a multidecade retirement period that never involves some type of paid employment. About 20% of people who consider themselves retired are still working either part-time or full-time (based on data from T. Rowe Price and others), while many other retirees eventually return to work in some form.

As a result, withdrawal rates are only one piece of the puzzle for early retirees. People who leave the workforce at a relatively young age should also take into account how their income might ebb and flow over the next few decades and try to build in some flexibility when it comes to both spending and employment plans.

Tao Guo contributed to this article.