How to Navigate the Shutdown-Affected November CPI Report

Key Takeaways

• Economists forecast the CPI to rise 3.1% on an annual basis in November after rising 3.0% in September.
• The BLS will not release overall numbers for October or the October CPI excluding food and energy, meaning official month-over-month changes will not be available for November.
• Tariffs are predicted to have put continued pressure on goods prices, but the effects are expected to decline modestly in the months ahead.

The November Consumer Price Index Report is expected to show a slight uptick in inflation, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continued to put upward pressure on goods prices. Economists expect the report to show the annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.1% in November from 3.0% in September. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also forecast to have risen 3.1% on an annual basis in November.

Because the government shutdown prevented most data from being collected during October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will not publish overall CPI and core CPI statistics for that month. That in turn means the BLS will not provide November monthly changes. “The upcoming news release and database update will not include one-month percent changes for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing,” a BLS spokesman said.

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis, says month-over-month changes are critical to inflation trends. “The month over month is what people focus on,” he says. “You’re not going to get a lot of signals from the year-over-year inflation.” Economists say it will be possible to create a rough picture of the monthly changes for November by comparing the underlying price index levels against those in September.

The CPI is forecast to rise 0.25% in November after rising 0.30% in September, according to FactSet. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% in November after rising 0.2% in September.

Missing Data Could Have Lingering Impact on CPI Quality

The missing data could cloud the November readings on prices themselves. One issue is that the government shutdown, which ended on Nov. 13, was followed by the Thanksgiving holiday, limiting the amount of time the government had to collect data during the month.

“The abridged month means that fewer-than-usual prices are likely to be collected, which could contribute to increased volatility,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists. “Collecting prices only in the second half of the month could bias prices lower because goods prices typically decline sharply starting around the middle of November as the holiday sales season kicks off. We estimate that late collection could exert as much as a 10-15bp drag on the overall November core CPI. That said, the lack of an October reading means that the drag could appear less pronounced on a sequential, two-month basis, and any drag on November prices would correspond to a commensurate boost to December inflation.”

Economists at UBS see the potential for the impact to linger even longer: “In contrast to the problems with the November CPI, the CPI level in the December report, currently scheduled for publication on Tuesday, January 13, should be considerably less affected by the government shutdown. That said, even the December CPI will not be completely unaffected by the government shutdown, and some level bias could continue in the CPI until the October housing sample is revisited in the April CPI that is published in May. We suggest paying little attention to what is published [for November] because it will be based on less information than usual, will depend on assumptions that the BLS is not providing detail on, and might be biased downward.”

November CPI Report Highlights

• CPI report release date and time: Thursday, Dec. 18 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
• The CPI year over year is forecast to rise 3.1% in November after rising 3.0% in September.
• Core CPI year over year is forecast to rise 3.1% in November after rising 3.0% in September.

Some See Softer Inflation In November

José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, sees inflation coming in slightly softer than expected, at 0.1% month over month and 2.9% year over year. He also expects softer core inflation, at 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year, matching September’s year over year core rate.

He points to declining gasoline prices and easing shelter costs as the key reasons headline CPI should come in slightly lower. “Shelter is going to stay low due to restrictive immigration policies, as well as mortgage rates that are still too high,” Torres adds.

Economists at Bank of America also expect inflation to come in below consensus forecasts. For both headline and core CPI, they forecast a 0.2% increase month over month and a 2.9% increase year over year. “One reason for our somewhat soft forecast is that the CPI will reflect new health insurance information, which we estimate to be a decent drag on headline and core,” they wrote. “Importantly, this will not affect PCE inflation.” Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast the same changes.

CPI Seen Showing Sustained Upward Pressure on Goods Prices from Tariffs

September’s report showed tariffs continuing to push up consumer goods prices, particularly for new vehicles. Apparel and furniture and appliances also saw sizable increases. Interactive Brokers’ Torres expects additional upward pressure from tariffs on automobile and apparel prices in November’s report. However, he says that new vehicles and apparel don’t make up a large enough share of the CPI to meaningfully move the index, barring extreme increases.

Torres also notes that tariffs should have a modestly declining effect on CPI going forward. “I think that we could still expect lower inflation in 2026 despite the US maintaining tariffs,” he explains. “I think we can settle in at 2.5% next summer.”

Economists at Bank of America expect goods inflation to remain sticky and services inflation to soften slightly. “On the goods side, we forecast price increases in both new and used vehicles,” they wrote. “Excluding autos, core goods prices likely rose an average of 0.23% per month since September, owing to tariffs. Meanwhile for services, we forecast a rebound in rents after September’s weak print, but this should be offset by softer airfares, lodging away from home and a decline in health insurance.”