Morningstar

January PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 2.8%, Softer Than Expected

The PCE Price Index increased 0.28% in January.

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Illustration of capital building with bubbles of currency inflating

The January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a softer-than-expected increase, up 2.8% from year-ago levels. Economists forecast that the PCE index would rise 2.9%.

When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.1% from one year ago, above expectations. Economists forecast that the core PCE inflation index would rise 2.9%.

The PCE Price Index increased 0.28% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index increased 0.36%.

January PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index rose 0.28% in January, below the FactSet consensus forecast for a 0.33% increase and following an increase of 0.36% in December.
  • Core PCE rose 0.36% in January, below forecasts for a 0.41% increase and following an increase of the same amount in December.
  • The PCE Price Index year over year rose 2.8% in January, below forecasts for a 2.9% increase and following an increase of 2.9% in December.
  • Core PCE year over year rose 3.1% in January, above forecasts for a 2.9% increase and following an increase of 3.0% in December.

This article was generated with the help of automation and reviewed by Morningstar editors. Learn more about Morningstar’s use of automation.

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