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March PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 2.3%, Stronger Than Expected

The PCE Price Index was unchanged in March.

Collage illustration of a pie chart featuring images of the Federal Reserve, a stack of coins, and a ticker board.

The March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index posted a stronger-than-expected increase, up 2.3% from year-ago levels. Economists forecast that the index would rise 2.1%.

When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 2.6% from one year ago, above expectations. Economists forecast that the core PCE inflation index would rise 2.5%.

The PCE Price Index was unchanged from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the index also was unchanged.

March PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index held steady in March, in line with the FactSet consensus forecast and following an increase of 0.4% in February.
  • Core PCE held steady in March, below forecasts for a 0.1% increase and following an increase of 0.5% in February.
  • The PCE Price Index rose 2.3% year over year in March, above forecasts for a 2.1% increase and following an increase of 2.7% in February.
  • Core PCE year over year rose 2.6% in March, above forecasts for a 2.5% increase and following an increase of 3.0% in February.

PCE Price Index vs. Core PCE Price Index

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data as of 2025-03-31.

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