Morningstar

March PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 3.5%, Softer Than Expected

The PCE Price Index increased 0.66% in March.

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Collage illustration of a pie chart featuring images of the Federal Reserve, a stack of coins, and a ticker board.

The March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index was up 3.5% from year-ago levels. Economists had forecast that the index would rise 3.6%.

When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.2% from one year ago, in line with expectations.

The PCE Price Index increased 0.66% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index increased 0.29%.

March PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index rose 0.66% in March, above the FactSet consensus forecast for a 0.63% increase and following a 0.38% increase in February.
  • Core PCE rose 0.29% in March, above forecasts for a 0.26% increase and following an increase of 0.37% in February.
  • The PCE Price Index year over year rose 3.5% in March, below forecasts for a 3.6% increase and following an increase of 2.8% in February.
  • Core PCE year over year rose 3.2% in March, in line with forecasts and following an increase of 3.0% in February.

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