Morningstar

May PCE Report: PCE Inflation Index Up 4.1%, In Line with Expectations

The PCE Price Index increased 0.45% in May.

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Illustration of capital building with bubbles of currency inflating

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased in line with expectations, up 4.1% from year-ago levels. When volatile food and energy costs are factored out, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation increased 3.4% from one year ago, above expectations. Economists forecast that the core PCE inflation index would rise 3.3%.

The PCE Price Index increased 0.45% from month-ago levels. Excluding food and energy, the PCE Price Index increased 0.32%.

May PCE Inflation Report Highlights

  • The PCE Price Index rose 0.45% in May, below the FactSet consensus forecast for a 0.50% increase and following a 0.41% increase in April.
  • Core PCE rose 0.32% in May, below forecasts for a 0.40% increase and following a 0.25% increase in April.
  • The PCE Price Index rose 4.1% year over year in May, in line with forecasts and following a 3.8% increase in April.
  • Core PCE rose 3.4% year over year in May, above forecasts for a 3.3% increase and following a 3.3% increase in April.

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